![]() ![]() We will also explain in a forthcoming article how this will then impact on how we reconcile our full range of productivity estimates. We have produced additional articles that explain how COVID-19 is impacting on the production of our estimates of inflation and the labour market, which also feed into the compilation of the UK National Accounts. Section 6 explains the practical challenges that National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) are expected to face in compiling GDP this year and how we are responding. Section 4 and Section 5 include an overview of the main conceptual points for how we record estimates of GDP, which are more technical in nature. Section 3 provides a theoretical framework for understanding how GDP may be impacted, reflecting some the most recent literature. The aim is to explain how we expect COVID-19 to affect estimates of UK GDP in theory and in practice. This article is aimed at those with some background knowledge of the national accounts. The UK National Accounts provide a consistent framework to understand these impacts, offering an integrated description of all economic activity that takes place within the UK – including gross domestic product (GDP). The latest available business surveys in the UK and real-time indicators point to a significant decline in economic activity, while the initial estimates for other countries highlight the extent of the impacts so far on the real economy. This global pandemic is now expected to impact on the economic outlook for some time to come. The first case of the coronavirus (COVID-19) was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) in December 2019 and was subsequently declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). Find out how our studies and surveys are serving public need.All ONS analysis, summarised in our coronavirus roundup.Find the latest on coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK.We then propose how we will look to tackle some of these considerations, building on the lessons learned from compiling GDP through the 2008 to 2009 global financial crisis ( Section 6). We outline the significant practical challenges that we expect to face in compiling GDP this year, including producing imputations and forecasts, carrying out seasonal adjustment, and the process of deflation. This follows the latest international guidance and will feature as part of the production and income approaches to measuring GDP. We explain how we propose to treat the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) in the UK National Accounts and the public sector finances ( Section 5). We also explain how we have been carrying out research on these topics to provide the most informed estimates available at this stage. In this article, we describe how those transactions that are most likely to be impacted by the pandemic will be reflected in the production, income and expenditure measures of GDP ( Section 3), including how we have reflected this accordingly in our volume-based estimates of health and education output ( Section 4). We are responding to these challenges so that we capture the economic activity of the UK in line with the latest international guidance. ![]() ![]() The response to COVID-19 will also impact on the ability of National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) to compile estimates of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and the labour market. The impact is expected to reflect the length of the pandemic as well as the public health restrictions imposed and other voluntary social distancing measures. Forecasters expect the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic to lead to a contraction in the UK and global economy this year, reflecting how it has led to a reduction in the demand for goods and services and the impact on the ability of businesses to supply those products. ![]()
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